This week, the US crop update shares insights into the current drought status, the impact of historical and forecasted weather, and last but not least, the latest crop conditions and harvest updates with a comparison to the past years.
USDA released an updated crop production report showing increased yields of corn and soybeans with increased planted corn acreage and decreased planted soybean acreage.
There was very little rainfall this past week with warmer than normal conditions in the western corn-belt. The lack of additional moisture will not suffice to increase yield for corn and soybeans that are still filling grains. The forecast for this week only shows rain in the northern corn-belt with warmer than average conditions. As a result, early harvest should continue to be fast, and it will help keep harvest progress more quickly than normal.
The longer-term weather forecast shifted to wetter, which, if it will happen, is needed to help alleviate drought conditions going into 2022. Warmer than normal conditions are still forecasted into late October, helping speed up harvest.
Crop Conditions and Harvest Status
Harvest has started earlier than last season. The yield and acreage for corn are up. The current crop conditions for corn are just below average.
The estimated acreage for soybeans has been lowered but both the acreage and yield are up from the previous season. The current crop conditions for soybeans are at 57 and just below average.
Corn & Soybean Pricing
This fall, corn pricing is predicted to be at $5.05/bu and soybeans at $12.60/bu up from $3.66/bu and $9.90/bu last fall. With the ongoing shortages in raw materials, input prices are expected to go up by 2022. However, with the current corn and soy prices increasing by 27% to 38% per bushel, respectively, this will provide growers a better outlook for 2022.
There was very little rainfall this past week with warmer than normal conditions in the western corn-belt.
The 30-day precipitation shows a drier finish to grain fill in parts of MO, IL, IN, MI and OH.
The temperature in the last week has been warmer than normal over the Midwest and western half of the USA, while most of the eastern half of the USA was normal to slightly cooler than normal.
Drought conditions improved a little in some areas but are mostly still firm in place. If the fall continues to be dry, this is a concern for 2022.
ECMWF longer-term precipitation outlook into late October has shifted to a wetter forecast since last week. That type of forecast needs to be verified to help reduce drought conditions going into next year. The temperature forecast remains warmer than normal which will help speed up harvest.
The impact of the chlorpyrifos cancellation by the EPA will affect a broad range of crops in the USA. However, its use has been decreasing since 2000, and the impact on most commodity crops is minimal.
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