Monthly temperature and precipitation outlook for June

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US Crop Update – May 31, 2022

Summary

Steve Doench, Head of Sustainable Agronomy
Steve Doench, Technical Sales Agronomist
  1. In the last week of May, planting progress neared the finish line in most states, but many acres remain unplanted in North Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Preventative Planting (PP) insurance claims are triggered in areas hitting their final planting dates for full insurance coverage. With the high commodity prices – it will not be an easy decision.
  2. The forecast continues to show cooler conditions with scattered rain indicating cloudy weather in many areas next week. North Dakota is the state that is most challenged this spring.  Their forecast is not overly wet, and it looks like there will be a window where fields can dry out enough to plant soybeans this week. 
  3. Drought conditions across most of the western United States stay in place while active storm systems will alleviate some areas.

Prevent planting

North Dakota continues to be the epicenter for acres that will trigger PP claims, along with scattered areas in other states that could not finish intended plantings for corn. Soybean final planting dates start on June 10th. Acres planted past the final planting date lose 1% of insurance guarantees for up to 25 days. After that, it will be the insurance guarantee minus 25%.

Map of Crop Insurance Final Planting Dates
Map of Crop Insurance Final Planting Dates. Credit: farmdocdaily

Spring wheat’s final planting dates in North Dakota are June 5th in the northern half of the state and May 31st in the state’s southern half. Outside of corn and soybeans, North Dakota will also struggle to finish planting spring wheat and possibly the much-needed sunflowers to help replace the supplies the Ukraine, as the top producer in the world, will likely not be able to fully plant and harvest this season.

Percentage of corn and soybeans planted for the various states from April 17 through May 29th.

The corn and soybeans acres in percentages planted on May 29th, from 2017 to 2022 are shown in the graph and table below. The planting in 2022 is slightly below average for both crops.

The table shows the 5-year planting percentage of corn and soybean on May 29 from 2017 through 2022, including the average from 2017 through 2021. The 2022 planting progress is just below average for both crops.

5-year average planting progress for corn and soybeans for May 29th

The graph and table below show the emergence of corn and soybean acres on May 29th from 2017 through 2022. The general warmer weather at the end of May helped crop emergence to catch up, though it is still behind the more typical end-of-May rates of above 70% for corn and more than 40% for soybeans.

US Corn and Soybean % Emerged May 29, 2022
The table shows the 5-year emergence of corn and soybean on May 29 from 2017 through 2022, including the average for 2017 through 2021. The 2022 emergence is below average for both corn and soybeans.

The General Farming Returns for the Midwest continue to favor corn even though corn prices have slipped some over the last week. Compared to the previous year, cash price, revenue, and return are predicted to be significantly higher. 

General Farming Returns for the United States Midwest comparing 2021 with forecasted 2022 data.

Weather impacts

Precipitation

In the last seven days, the central US received rain in most areas, which improved many regions compared to the previous 30 days in absolute numbers and percentage of normal precipitation. 

Temperature

The south-central areas experienced some cloudy, cooler, and stormy days but were generally warm enough to emerge some of the crops by the end of May.  The warmer than normal temperatures in the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota encouraged some late May planting progress. 

The last 30 days have been generally warmer than normal except for the Northern Plains and Pacific Northwest.

Drought Monitor

Most of the Western United States is still experiencing severe or worse drought conditions. The rainy season in California has passed, so a lack of water will impact crop production.

Active storm systems continue to improve drought conditions in some areas of the Pacific Northwest, the Southern Plains, Texas Panhandle, and Oklahoma.

Winter wheat

Winter wheat conditions have yet to improve much. Harvest has begun in Texas and Oklahoma, and any additional rain will now just slow progress.  In Kansas, where only 31% of winter wheat has started to mature,  crops in the northwest to north-central parts of the state can still greatly benefit from additional rainfall.

June outlook

Longer-range forecasts show a cooler pattern in the Pacific North West, the Northern Plains, and the Northern corn-belt. Forecasted rainfall in most of the corn-belt over the next 30 days is normal to above normal. The Pacific North West is also predicted to have precipitation above normal. This cool June forecast will not benefit the late-planting, northern areas. In September, they will struggle to attain enough growing degree days for corn to reach maturity ahead of typical first frosts.

Monthly temperature and precipitation outlook for June

Extended temperature and precipitation outlook departure from normal May 2022

The short-term weather outlook below shows active storms including cloudy and cooler than normal conditions over the next week. This is not conducive to getting the last areas of planting completed but helps give the areas that are already up and growing more moisture reserves.

First 11 days of May are wet in many areas across the USA

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