As forecasts remain dry and warm, drought will continue to impact 2022 harvest results as well as influence planning decisions for 2023.
A warmer and drier than normal summer reduced yield potential after a delayed early planting season.
Percent of normal precipitation and departure from normal temperature data for June through August 2022 from High Plains Regional Climate Center
September precipitation was drier than normal, and temperatures were warmer than normal. These warm and dry conditions helped crops mature on time and ahead of any major frost issues, but did not help late-season grain fill. With crops already behind from early planting, this left an even greater strain on yield potential.
Percent of normal precipitation and departure from normal temperature data for June through August 2022 from High Plains Regional Climate Center
Over the course of the past month, drought has continued to build. The fall outlook does not appear to show any hope of alleviation. Without a wet winter and spring, drought will continue to remain an issue into 2023.
United States drought monitor maps for October, September, and May 2022 from US Drought Monitor
When it comes to pricing and economic outlook, corn is favored over soybeans going into 2023 with an expected yield of 190 (corn) over 60 (soybeans). This significant change raised anticipated return on corn by $30.50 and dropped return on soybeans by $9. Variable cost (VC) per acre and land costs are rising. While all fertilizer prices have been rising by 10% or more, UAN prices have increased by over 40% and ammonia increases surpassed 60%.
GFS and ECMWF generally agree on a warmer and drier fall period, but the GFS forecast shows a larger area with much drier and warmer conditions. This will help harvest finish up well ahead of normal but can lead to drier than standard grain weights and some lost yield at the elevator. Drought conditions will remain in place and expand as winter approaches.
GFS long-term forecasts
ECMWF long-term forecasts
Higher profit margins are expected for corn than soybeans this fall which will sway planning decisions for 2023. Additionally, the outlook continues to be dry and warm in the long-term forecasts. Drought will persist unless winter and spring predictions increase expected precipitation.
With a dry spring hanging over the corn belt, concerns of returned crop stress remain going into the second half of the season. Regional drought monitor maps give reason for this concern as drought lingers in across much of the central US.
Dicamba, 2,4-D, and glufosinate tolerance for soybeans and cotton have opened a new world of opportunity for using these herbicides for post-emergence weed control. However, these opportunities also introduce challenges with antagonism when multiple herbicides are tank-mixed.
The largest conference in the golf course industry is right around the corner. This year’s GCSAA conference will be jam-packed with four days of educational seminars, a trade show, tours, and so much more.
Have you ever thought you prepared the perfect application, but gotten less-than-perfect results? As the largest component of a spray tank mix, water can significantly impact application quality. Hard water, the pH of the water, or dirty water can all affect the efficacy of a spray tank mix. Water conditioners can help to mitigate these issues.
Have you ever thought you prepared the perfect application, but gotten less-than-perfect results? As the largest component of a spray tank mix, water can significantly impact application quality. Hard water, the pH of the water, or dirty water can all affect the efficacy of a spray tank mix. Water conditioners can help to mitigate these issues.
Wielding his 35 years of experience, Mark Mahady provides insight on irrigation and water conservation, turf and soil moisture management, wetting agents, surfactants, and other related topics in this edition of Cutting-Edge Perspectives.
A field full of volunteer corn that could have benefitted from a successful 2,4-D application
Understanding formulations starts in the lab. Knowing the specifications of a product can help users understand how they use may act and perform in the real-world. Exacto Chemist, Chris Walter, explains Contact Angle to help applicators better understand the chemistry behind surfactants, sticker spreaders, and wetting agents in this edition of the Research to Real-World series.
Learn about the latest wetting agent and moisture management research to combat localized dry spot (LDS), hydrophobicity, salinity, rapid blight disease, drought, and other issues from the University of California, Riverside field day.
Are growers in countries like Brazil using the same agricultural technologies and products as the U.S.? Compare advances in adjuvant use and agricultural education with Senior Agronomist, Todd Cardwell, in this edition of Cutting-Edge Perspectives.
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