Key features for the start of 2023 US crop season:
Spring weather forecasts look to be fairly cool and wet to start April. A dry and warm May will be critical to avoiding seasonal delays for spraying and planting.
Overall US drought conditions have improved from a year ago. Currently, the worst drought conditions are in northeastern Nebraska, western Kansas, and south into the panhandle of Texas. As a whole, compared to 2022 the US is not facing widespread drought with excessive moisture in California, snow cover in North Dakota, and a wet forecast for the eastern corn-belt.
Of the US crops, winter wheat is the most at risk for being affected by drought this year. Poor emergence last fall from planting in dry soils, dry and windy conditions, and potential winterkill from very cold air will likely limit the total amount of winter wheat acres that will be harvested for grain from southern Kansas through northern Texas. For acres that are abandoned or grazed off, spring moisture will be essential for summer crops like corn, cotton, or sorghum to establish well.
Southern Kansas through Oklahoma to the Texas panhandle is experiencing exceptional drought along with parts of eastern Nebraska and southern Texas. University of Nebraska Lincoln Drought Monitor
Parts of Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, Oklahoma, Texas, Florida, Montanna, and Idaho are experiencing class 2 or worse degradation. Western states, Louisiana, Wisconsin, and parts of Texas and Oklahoma are experiencing class 3 or higher improvement. University of Nebraska Lincoln Drought Monitor
31 percent of corn and 22 percent of soybean production areas are experiencing drought while roughly half of the major winter wheat production areas are experiencing drought.
In the corn-belt, snow cover and residual cooling effects from the Dakotas into Minnesota ruled out an early start to spring field work and an early planting window. Parts of the corn-belt like western Iowa and eastern Nebraska will have average temperatures and be dry enough to start planting by mid-April.
Current snow cover will take time to melt, making it take longer for soil to dry out in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota.
Office of Water Prediction 2023 snow analysis shows heavy snow cover in the west and moderate snow in northern states through the northeast. This is a significant increase from 2020-2021, where there was limited snow depth in the north and average cover in the west.
Northern California snow map shows a significantly heavier snow cover compared to 2022.
Once the flooding risk subsides, there is hope the aquifers will take in some of the excessive surface moisture and start to recharge for future crops seasons. This refill would allow for increased water availability for irrigation-dependent cropping systems in the next few years.
Northern and western states are predicted to have below normal temperatures while southern states are expected to be higher than normal.
The current weather outlooks into early April are cool and wet for most of the corn-belt. The southeast US and Mississippi Delta should be able to get summer crops planted timely and Texas is already about 50% done with corn planting.
The short-term forecast shows above-average or near normal precipitation across most of the country. However, the long-term forecast shows equal or below average chances for most of the country and above average chances wrapping around Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and parts of neighboring states.
Overall, by May 1st, the US will be behind schedule with spring field work and planting progress. A dry and warmer May will be imperative to completing planting without delay, on-time early season crop protection applications, and limiting potential preventative planting claims.
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